Examining the Future of Mali: Exploring the Post-MINUSMA Era

The future of Mali hangs in the balance as the United Nations Security Council responds to Bamako’s request to withdraw soldiers from the peacekeeping mission.
On June 16th, Mali’s Foreign Minister, Abdoulaye Diop, made it clear that Bamako wants the Blue Helmets out of the country when their mandate ends on June 30th. This decision marks a significant turning point for Mali, as it signals the end of the MINUSMA era and opens up a new chapter in the country’s history.
MINUSMA, which was established by the United Nations Security Council in April 2013, aimed to support peace and stability in Mali. However, despite its efforts, the mission has not fully achieved its fundamental goal of securing the country. The political instability and armed conflict that gripped Mali in 2012 still persist in some areas, making it clear that new strategies need to be implemented to ensure long-term peace and stability.
Bamako’s request for the withdrawal of MINUSMA soldiers is a reflection of the government’s desire to take full control of the country’s security. While the government acknowledges MINUSMA’s contribution in humanitarian and social assistance, it believes that it is time for Mali to stand on its own feet and address its internal security challenges. This decision shows the government’s willingness to take responsibility for the peace and stability of the country and work towards finding sustainable solutions.
However, the withdrawal of MINUSMA also raises concerns about the future of Mali. The country is still grappling with the presence of armed rebels and fighters linked to al-Qaeda in various regions. Without the support of a peacekeeping mission, there is a possibility that these groups could gain more ground and pose a threat to the peace and stability of the country. It is crucial for the government of Mali to devise a comprehensive strategy to combat these security challenges and prevent any further escalation of violence.
The post-MINUSMA era presents an opportunity for Mali to reassess its priorities and focus on sustainable development. With the absence of a peacekeeping mission, the government can redirect its resources towards building a strong and resilient nation. This includes investing in infrastructure, education, and healthcare to improve the lives of its citizens. In addition, the government needs to address the root causes of the conflict, such as economic inequality, political grievances, and ethnic tensions, to ensure long-term peace and stability.
The draft contains several key points. Firstly, the resolution calls for the peacekeeping mission’s mandate to end on June 30th, and instructs the mission to begin withdrawing personnel on July 1st. The withdrawal is expected to be completed by the end of the year.
Mali has made it clear that there will be no extension to this timeframe, and they are committed to ensuring compliance with this decision. They will closely cooperate with the United Nations Secretariat and MINUSMA in promptly implementing the resolution within the established time frame.
In certain circumstances, MINUSMA will have permission to respond to imminent threats of violence against civilians, with the consent of Mali. Additionally, according to the resolution, MINUSMA is authorised to assist in safely delivering humanitarian aid within its immediate vicinity, under civilian leadership.
Why Mali wants troops out
Mali has recently expressed its desire for the withdrawal of troops from the United Nations (UN). The government in Bamako accuses the UN mission, which has been active for ten years, of worsening the situation in the country with a population of over 20 million.
According to Diop, “MINUSMA seems to have contributed to the problem by fueling tensions within communities, aggravated by extremely severe accusations that greatly undermine peace, reconciliation, and national unity in Mali.” He also mentioned that this situation has created a sense of mistrust among the population towards MINUSMA.
On the other hand, MINUSMA has continuously raised concerns about restrictions on troop and aircraft movements. These limitations have hindered their ability to carry out their mandate effectively. This includes investigations into alleged human rights violations committed by Wagner Group, a mercenary organisation working in Mali alongside the country’s army.
Both Bamako and Wagner categorically deny these allegations.
According to analysts, the decision to withdraw the peacekeepers could have a significant impact on the country’s stability.
“The withdrawal of the UN peacekeepers will have a detrimental effect on the implementation of the 2015 peace agreement between the government and the Tuareg separatists. This agreement was crucial for achieving decentralisation while keeping Mali united,” expressed Paul Melly, a researcher at Chatham House, a renowned think tank based in London.
He further emphasised, “It will expose numerous communities in northern Mali to an increased risk of jihadist attacks. Additionally, it will exacerbate existing challenges faced by public administration, welfare programs, and humanitarian efforts that have been supported by the United Nations.”
Deadly, expensive mission
MINUSMA, the UN peacekeeping operation in Mali, has unfortunately experienced over 300 fatalities, making it the deadliest mission of its kind. Additionally, with a budget of $1.2bn, MINUSMA stands as the most expensive undertaking by the organisation.
Following the adoption of the resolution, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres paid tribute to the memory of the 309 MINUSMA personnel who lost their lives while serving for peace in Mali. In a statement delivered by Farhan Haq, Deputy Spokesperson for the Secretary-General, Guterres expressed profound respect for their sacrifice.
Concerning safety measures within Mali itself, government officials in Bamako have assured that they can ensure the protection of all citizens across this vast landlocked country. While specific details were not provided, Konfourou reiterated Mali’s full commitment to fulfilling its primary mission of safeguarding civilians and their property throughout national territory.
In recent developments during 2021, Malian military rulers formed an agreement with Russian mercenary group Wagner to offer support in combating armed groups. However, this pact sparked strong backlash from Western nations due to concerns about destabilisation caused by such involvement.
Both Moscow and Bamako insist that these Russian fighters are not mercenaries but rather trainers working alongside local troops to combat rebel factions. Despite ongoing debate surrounding their presence and nature of involvement, engagement between Russia and Mali continues amidst differing perspectives on their role and impact in stabilising the situation.
Last year, an incident occurred in Moura, central Mali, where local troops and suspected Russian fighters, allegedly affiliated with Wagner, were accused of killing hundreds of civilians. According to Melly, Wagner lacks the military resources and commitment to community mediation, human rights, and ‘hearts and minds’ initiatives that the UN possesses.
In addition to these allegations, Washington has accused Wagner of destabilising Mali. They claim that the group collaborated with Bamako to facilitate the withdrawal of UN peacekeepers from the country. John Kirby, a spokesperson for the US National Security Council, stated that senior Malian officials directly worked with employees of Yevgeny Prighozin to inform the UN secretary-general about Mali revoking consent for the MINUSMA mission.
Dire humanitarian situation
The UN has reported a dire humanitarian situation in Mali, with at least 7.5 million people in need of assistance. Insecurity and the effects of climate change have left one in four Malians food insecure.
Experts are concerned that the situation could worsen as UN troops withdraw from the country by the end of December. This may lead to more displaced populations and challenges in delivering aid to vulnerable individuals.
Despite these challenges, MINUSMA, the UN peacekeeping mission in Mali, has made a significant impact on the country. It has provided stability and security protection for communities in northern Mali and supported the provision of essential public services and administration in areas where government officials or humanitarian organisations would have otherwise struggled to operate without security support.