Handshake cracks: Raila roar rattles Ruto base

In a dramatic twist that could reshape political landscape ahead of the 2022 polls,ODM party leader Raila Odinga has shifted his tone on his much-criticized pact with President William Ruto.
Once seen as a strategic truce, the so-called “handshake 2.0” now appears to be hanging by a thread as Raila reasserts ODM’s traditional role as the uncompromising voice of the people.
Speaking this week at a funeral function, Raila declared “We entered into discussions in good faith, believing it was for the greater good. But we cannot be party to a government that neglects the cries of the common mwananchi.”
His words, fiery and defiant, come after weeks of mounting pressure from within ODM ranks and the broader opposition coalition. Many party faithful had grown increasingly uneasy over perceived political coziness with the Kenya Kwanza administration.
Political analysts argue the shift was inevitable.
“Raila realized that maintaining a political truce with a government facing widespread public dissatisfaction would erode his credibility,” said political commentator Macharia Munene.”The ground is angry — and in Kenyan politics, the ground is everything.”
Signs of disquiet within ODM became visible late last month when several senior party officials, including vocal legislators like Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, openly questioned the wisdom of continuing the pact.
“People are suffering. We cannot dine with those oppressing our people,” Owino told supporters during a town hall meeting in Nairobi.
Similar sentiments have echoed across the opposition strongholds, with grassroots mobilization now underway to “reclaim” ODM’s soul.
“It is betrayal to remain silent as the cost of living soars and promises remain unfulfilled,” said Martha Omollo, a youth leader from Mombasa. “We expect Baba (Raila) to lead, not to negotiate our pain.”
UDA dismisses rift as “empty politics”
Meanwhile, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) leadership has downplayed Raila’s change of stance, with some dismissing it as mere political theatrics.
Even President Ruto exuded confidence that the government’s development agenda would not be derailed by political sideshows,it appears a storm is imminent.
“Kenya is moving forward,” said Ruto. “Our focus is delivering on our promises, not getting dragged into endless politicking.”
Yet behind the bravado, insiders suggest there is growing concern within Ruto’s camp. With disillusionment spreading among the youth and discontent festering over economic hardships, Raila’s renewed activism could galvanize opposition and complicate Ruto’s re-election ambitions.
The handshake – forged amid much secrecy and speculation earlier this year -was initially intended to foster national stability and facilitate bipartisan legislative reforms. However, political observers argue that the goodwill was thin and has quickly dissipated under the weight of practical realities.
“Ruto’s government underestimated how deeply ingrained public expectations were on issues like cost of living and job creation,” observed Dr. Rose Lukalo, a governance expert. “By engaging Raila without delivering substantive benefits to ordinary Kenyans, they essentially handed him a moral high ground.”
According to Lukalo, Raila’s recalibration is both a response to public mood and a strategic move to reframe himself as the outsider championing reform — a potent narrative in any election cycle.
Rising tensions ahead of 2027
As the 2027 election looms larger on the horizon, the stakes have intensified. Within UDA, fears of a fractured electoral base are real, especially as rival leaders like former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua jostle to consolidate their influence.
“This is not just about Raila,” said political analyst Herman Manyora. “It’s about the growing feeling among Kenyans that the Ruto administration has not met expectations. Raila is simply reading the mood and repositioning himself.”
Indeed, Raila’s latest moves — convening national rallies, calling for mass action, and reviving his “People’s Dialogue” forums — mirror the tried-and-tested tactics that propelled him to political relevance for decades.
Sources close to the ODM leader hint at an impending nationwide campaign dubbed “Sauti ya Watu” (The Voice of the People), aimed at rallying citizens around key grievances like high taxation, corruption, and unemployment.
In a stark warning to those in power, Raila said during his Kisumu rally, “If the government refuses to listen to the people, the people will act. We will not wait until 2027 to make our voices heard.”
This warning, coupled with increasing talk of civil disobedience campaigns, suggests that Kenya’s political climate could heat up much sooner than many anticipated.
On the flip side, government allies maintain a brave face, insisting they are ready for any challenge.
“We have nothing to fear. The people will judge us by our work, not noise from political rallies,” stated Majority Leader in the National Assembly Kimani Ichung’wah.