How will the mountain matrix determine 2027 contest?

 
Monday’s surprise meeting between President William Ruto and former Head of StateUhuru Kenyatta in Ichaweri, Kiambu county stormed the political landscape.
The meeting elicited varied reactions from politicians including ousted Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who recently declared Uhuru as the region’s kingpin.
Ruto, who is seen to be on a mission to garner back the support of Mt Kenya region, has also come out to explain why he met the retired President after years of a strained relationship.
The President said he met with Uhuru to find common ground for future collaboration. Putting it into context, Ruto said he also approached former Prime Minister Raila Odinga for the same purpose, which led to the formation of a broad-based government.
“It is the reason why I am working with the former Prime Minister. It is the reason why I have reached out to the former President. It is the reason why I will reach out to other leaders so that we can fashion a country,” he said.
Following the meeting, some political pundits argues that the Ruto-Uhuru reunion would complicate political calculations for Gachagua, who was impeached in October.
Gachagua has been moving to consolidate his Mt Kenya support ahead of the 2027 General Elections. He has, nonetheless, downplayed the closing of ranks between Ruto and Uhuru.
Gachagua has insisted that leaders are free to meet and he has been holding similar meetings with other politicians after his impeachment.
He has maintained he would still be making a major political announcement at the beginning of next year. Interestingly, the former Deputy President has also been pursuing a truce with Uhuru, hoping it will strengthen his hand in Mt Kenya.
In recent interviews, Gachagua has indicated that Uhuru still ranks in his books as Mt Kenya kingpin and regrets having gone “overly ballistic” on the retired President during the 2022 campaigns.
“Myself and the mountain people feel very bad that we punished Uhuru Kenyatta. We demeaned him, we told him off, we embarrassed him for telling us that Raila Odinga is a good man. And we were very brutal with him,” Gachagua said in September.
On 25 March, Gachagua apologised to former First Lady Mama Ngina Kenyatta for what he termed as “bad politics” during the 2022 elections.
Political analyst Javas Bigambo observes the political differences between the retired President and former Deputy President are irreconcilable and that Uhuru had wished all along to see him ousted.
“Though he kept invoking his name and claiming that he had reconciled with him and his mother, Mama Ngina Kenyatta, Uhuru avoided him completely,” Bigambo said.
“I remember during the burial of former Nairobi Police boss King’ori Mwangi in Nyeri county, Uhuru’s handlers requested the organisers to allow him to speak first because he had another ‘engagement’. Many interpreted this to mean the former President did not want to share the same podium with Gachagua who was on his way to join him.”
Bigambo notes that Gachagua recently shared the same podium with Ruto and Uhuru in Embu during the installation of the Embu Catholic bishop.
“Uhuru again avoided the former Deputy President and left soon after Ruto concluded his speech,” he added.
At the event, Uhuru recognised the new Deputy President Kithure Kindiki in a special way.
“Uhuru, in his speech, referred to part of Kindiki’s remarks where he had emphasised on building a united and harmonious nation of Kenya.”
Gachagua and Uhuru fell out in the buildup to the 2022 election after the fourth President fronted Raila for the top seat while the former Deputy President backed Ruto.
Then, Gachagua said Uhuru and Raila represented dynastic politics and entitlement. He even accused Uhuru of orchestrating his humiliation when Directorate of Criminal Investigations officers dragged him out of his house in the middle of the night – in front of his wife and children.
Ruto’s meeting with Uhuru, similarly, was no accident, but a meticulously planned move.
“For Rigathi, this misstep revealed his lack of understanding of political chess, a dangerous deficiency in a game where strategy reigns supreme,” he stated.
For Gachagua to reclaim his standing, experts opines that he must double his efforts. He pointed out that during his heyday, Gachagua forged more adversaries than allies, leaving a trail of broken relationships that now haunt his political aspirations.
Even so, leaders seemingly allied to the former Deputy President have downplayed the meeting between Ruto and Uhuru.
Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni has dismissed claims of a political partnership between the former and current President.
“On the issue of whether or not Uhuru is going to second experts like ODM, that is not his style. He believes and he would like to see a vibrant opposition because a vibrant opposition enables our democratic space to grow,” Kioni noted.
“He (Uhuru) does not believe in swallowing. He doesn’t believe in getting people into government in that manner,” he added.
Kioni added that Uhuru meeting Ruto should not be construed into signs of an impending alliance. City lawyer Nelson Havi has also downplayed the surprise meeting.
Havi said Ruto and Uhuru have individually let down the vote-rich Mt Kenya region and cannot do anything to appease the area’s voters to increase their political prospects.
The former Law Society of Kenya president said Uhuru no longer represents the region. Former Nyeri Town MP, Wambugu Ngunjiri, has said an alliance between Ruto and Uhuru would divide the Mt Kenya region as it wouldn’t have the support of Gachagua.
He argued that Uhuru’s entry into the Ruto-Gachagua differences would further divide the region.
“Your excellency, if you come back into politics, you’re going to go into confrontation with the current political leadership and you are going to split the mountain again just when we are healing,” Ngunjiri posted on his social media pages.
Ngunjiri reminded Uhuru that Mt Kenya residents refused to follow his political advice in the 2022 General Election.
Questions have also emerged as to whether Uhuru-Gachagua differences would reignite the Kiambu-Nyeri rivalry.
Mutua, however, said he does not see the friction re-emerging, as the dynamics of politics have changed greatly.
“The people of the mountain have come a long way and are now more enlightened,” he said.
During President Mzee Jomo Kenyatta’s regime, a clique of leaders nicknamed ‘The Kiambu Mafia’ warned that uthamaki (leadership) would never cross Chania River to Murang’a and Nyeri districts.
Chania River serves as the boundary between Kiambu and Murang’a counties. Mzee was from Gatundu which is in Kiambu.