Nigeria Elections: Can Peter Obi win the presidency?

It is still too early to say whether Peter Obi of the Labour Party can win the 2023 Nigeria presidential elections, which took place on 25 February 25 but there is no denying that he has shaken up the country’s politics.



Hitherto dominated by two major parties since the end of military rule in 1999, Nigeria’s political dynamics going into this election are such that outsider Obi has given a very good account of himself but analysts suggest he still faces an uphill struggle.



Obi, who is from a relatively new and small party, is hoping to defeat the two favourites and political heavyweights from traditional parties in Atiku Aboubakar of the People’s Democratic Party and Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress. That notwithstanding, he is confident of winning , promising a different way of doing things.



He believes that his fresh perspective of politics and government will be enough to win him the election and upset his opponents who have significant political experience and support.



He campaigned on the platform of the prevailing popular perception that the current government in Nigeria is in bad shape, with Abubakar and Tinubu as part of the problem. Obi is 61 years old but he is still seen as a fresh face with solutions compared to his opponents, well into their 70s.



Growing number of ‘Obidients’



Obi quickly became a credible candidate in the Nigerian presidential race, thanks in large part to his huge social media following amongst the country’s youth and endorsements from some prominent Nigerian figures, including ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo and renowned novelist Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie.



As Nigeria endures an economic slump and a troubled security situation, Obi’s supporters (nicknamed “Obidients”) see him as the antidote to a political class they accuse of corruption and bad governance. He has pledged to end the country’s dependence on oil, create jobs, and improve infrastructure.



His manifesto also has strong proposals on stamping out corruption and fixing the country’s education system.



To his supporters, he is the much-needed breath of fresh air in Nigerian politics and the poster image of integrity and prudence.



“I have two children. They are graduates, they have never participated in any public life. I have a son that is going to be 30 soon. He doesn’t own a car because he has to buy his own car, not me,” Obi said in a speech last year to his supporters’ applause.



This image of responsibility and accountability has endeared him to many Nigerians who are tired of corrupt, self-serving politicians in a country where public office is often seen as a way to enrich oneself and one’s family.



This has been viewed as a true commitment to service which has set him apart to the extent that his loyalists believe that he is a man of his word.



Obi supported the #EndSARS protest movement in October 2020, in which young demonstrators demanded the disbandment of the SARS police unit they accused of violence. His candidacy first emerged during this time. 



The #EndSARS movement began as a response to police brutality in Nigeria but quickly expanded to include demands for an end to corruption and economic inequality. These are burning issues in a country where oil revenues lavishly reward a small proportion of Nigerians while nearly half of the population live below the poverty line, according to the World Bank.



The #EndSARS movement captured the attention of the country and the world and it remains to be seen what sort of lasting change it will bring about.



Obi the Nigerian Macron?



Born to Christian parents from the Igbo ethnic group – Nigeria’s third-largest – Obi’s background is a common one in the country’s economic elite: studies in Lagos, at Harvard and at the London School of Economics, followed by a business career including management roles in several Nigerian banks.



Nigeria is a country with large-scale economic inequality and the elite are often those who have had the opportunity to study abroad at prestigious institutions. Obi belongs to this class of Nigerians, having studied at some of the most well-known universities in the world and a successful business career.



As an ex-banker who wants to smash through the old two-party system and reinvigorate his country with a technocratic style of politics, Obi has prompted comparisons to Emmanuel Macron, the current French President.



Just like Macron described himself as “neither left nor right” to create his own political party on his way to sweeping aside the traditional vehicles of social democracy and conservatism at the Élysée Palace in 2017, Obi is looking to rise above the traditional left-right divide and forge a new path for his country. 



Last year, Obi became leader of Nigeria’s Labour Party. Although it shares its name with the established British party, it is a rather marginal party without much political machinery nationally or governors with power bases in Nigeria’s provinces.



However, Ladipo Adamolekun, a Nigerian public administration expert and Francophile, cautioned against comparing Obi to Macron.



“Macron created his En Marche! party when France’s traditional parties were already in decline – it’s not like that for Obi,” he notes.



“When Macron ran for president of France, he did so with only a short stint as Francois Hollande’s economy minister under his belt. In contrast, Obi is very experienced when it comes to politics.



“He has been involved in various political campaigns and has gained a wealth of knowledge in the field. Unlike Macron, Obi is very much a political expert and will prove to be a formidable opponent in the race for the presidency.” 



Obi was governor of Anambra, a southern Nigerian state, in 2006. He then became the PDP’s vice-presidential candidate at the 2019 presidential elections before changing his political allegiance four times since 2022, thereby inviting criticism as being opportunistic. 



His critics also question his honesty because he was mentioned in the Pandora Papers in 2021. However, his supporters say he has proven his integrity with effective governance of Anambra. During his eight-year tenure as governor, he oversaw huge savings in the state’s coffers – a compelling argument in an economy burdened by heavy public debt.



Igbo vote ‘won’t be enough’



Despite strong polling figures, many analysts doubt that Obi can pull off a victory despite generating euphoric hype.



Some believe the hype is unjustified and that he cannot live up to the expectations, while others think he has deserved the attention, positioning himself as a strong candidate with a good chance of winning.



And then there is the common sentiment among many Africans – that the youth are not as engaged in the political process as they should be.



“In reality, a lot of the young people who have created all that social media buzz live abroad and can’t vote in Nigeria,” quips Babalola, a Nigerian politics analyst.



“As for polls, the numbers are not as reliable in Africa as they are in Europe. This is due to a variety of factors, including the fact that many African countries don’t have the same infrastructure in place to support accurate polling.



“There are a number of reasons why young people may be less likely to vote in elections. One is that they may be less engaged with the political process and less likely to see the importance of voting. Another reason is that young people are often more transient than older people, making it harder for them to register to vote and to stay on the electoral roll.



“This is especially true in countries like Nigeria where there are high levels of internal migration. Additionally, young people may be more cynical about the political process and believe that their vote won’t make a difference. This is particularly likely in countries with high levels of corruption, like Nigeria.”



Further, there are doubts whether Obi can overcome the challenges around ethnicity, religion and regional identity, all of which tend to be crucial factors in Nigerian voters’ choices.



“The Igbo vote won’t be enough for Obi to win,” Babalola emphasises, while highlighting the importance of winning votes in the predominantly Muslim north.



“Obi will need to win over voters from other ethnic groups and regions if he wants to be successful, but this will be no easy task. He will need to overcome the divisions that exist in the country, and convince voters that he is the best candidate to lead Nigeria forward.”



The winner of Nigeria’s presidential election will face a number of daunting challenges, chief among them being a struggling economy. Nigeria has the largest economy in Africa, but is plagued by inflation (currently at over 20%), fuel shortages, cash shortages (due to recent introduction of new bank notes) and an energy crisis that accounts for frequent blackouts.



Public finances are in a bad shape, with debt servicing consuming 41% of public spending in 2022. The government has been trying to shore up public finances through a combination of spending cuts and tax increases but these measures have not been enough to put the country on a sustainable fiscal path.



The government will need to do more to get the fiscal situation under control, or else the country risks defaulting on its debt obligations.



Other challenges are a high level of poverty, unemployment, poor infrastructure and a general lack of access to education and healthcare.



Tackling these issues will be no small feat but Nigerians will hope that their new president will improve their lives.



“As things stand, I doubt the new president will be able to put in place good governance, ” said Ladipo Adamolekun, who favours a more decentralised federal system to replace the current political structures, believing that this would provide a better framework within which the country could be governed.



In an interview with Kurunzi, Adamolekun expresses pessimism about the ability of the current president to effect such change, given the entrenched interests of those in power.



He notes that the new president will have to accept that the “current political system isn’t conducive to effective governance”, especially in the context of national security institutions including the police.



Indeed, President Muhammadu Buhari’s last term has been plagued by a marked deterioration in Nigeria’s security situation, fueled by inter-ethnic conflicts, criminal gang activity and jihadism.



According to the UN, jihadist violence has killed more than 40,000 people and displaced some 2.2 million in northeastern Nigeria since 2009. 



Boko Haram, the primary jihadist group operating in the region, has been responsible for the majority of the violence. The group emerged in the early 2000s as a radical Islamist sect opposing western education.



In 2009, it launched an insurgency in an attempt to create an Islamic state in northeastern Nigeria. Since then, Boko Haram has expanded its operations to include neighbouring countries like Chad, Mali and Niger.  
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