Confluence of African politics, domestic dynamics in AUC

In a closely watched election on Saturday, at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa, Djibouti’s Foreign Minister, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, was elected as the new Chairperson of the African Union Commission.
The outcome marked a significant setback for Kenya’s former Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, who had been a prominent contender for the position.
The election results have sparked extensive discussions among foreign policy experts and political figures, shedding light on the multifaceted factors that contributed to Odinga’s defeat.
The AUC Chairperson election was a competitive race featuring three main candidates: Raila Odinga of Kenya, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf of Djibouti, and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar. The voting process extended over multiple rounds, with Odinga initially leading in the first two rounds.
However, as the election progressed, Youssouf gained momentum, ultimately securing the position in the seventh round with 33 votes. This shift in support highlights the complex interplay of regional alliances and strategic voting within the AU member states.
A critical factor influencing the election outcome was the role of regional and linguistic blocs within the AU. The Francophone countries, in particular, demonstrated a strong tendency to support candidates from French-speaking nations.
Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi, a seasoned Kenyan diplomat and former Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Developmen, provided insight into this dynamic prior to the election.
He noted, “Francophone Africa traditionally votes as a bloc during elections, and it is extremely difficult for them to support a non-Francophone candidate when there is a French speaker in the race.”
This cohesive voting pattern among Francophone countries posed a significant challenge to Odinga’s candidacy, especially given Youssouf’s background as a Francophone candidate from Djibouti.
The Southern African Development Community also played a pivotal role in the election’s outcome. In a strategic move, SADC countries rallied behind Madagascar’s candidate, Richard Randriamandrato, thereby diverting potential support away from Odinga.
This collective decision by SADC nations underscored the importance of regional solidarity and the influence of geopolitical considerations in AU elections. The consolidation of SADC votes for Randriamandrato effectively fragmented the support base, diminishing Odinga’s prospects.
Odinga’s domestic political landscape may have also influenced perceptions among AU member states. At 80 years old, Odinga has been a central figure in Kenyan politics, with multiple presidential bids and a tenure as Prime Minister.
His recent political alliance with President William Ruto, traditionally a political rival, was viewed by some as a pragmatic move to secure national backing for his AU candidacy.
However, this alliance may have been perceived by other African leaders as a departure from his longstanding opposition stance, potentially leading to ambivalence regarding his candidacy.
Following the election, reactions from Kenyan political figures have been marked by a mix of disappointment and calls for introspection. Members of Parliament from Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement expressed their dissatisfaction with the election outcome.
Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma stated “I will petition the withdrawal of the East African Community from the African Union,” reflecting a sentiment of disillusionment with the AU’s decision-making process.
His Alego Usonga counterpart Sam Atandi suggested a reassessment of Kenya’s financial commitments to the AU, proposing that the country “limit its financial commitments to the AU, and in the long run, exit the union.”
Despite the setback, Raila Odinga exhibited resilience and grace in his concession.
“I am not bitter; I’m very happy indeed,” emphasizing his continued commitment to serving the continent in other capacities,”he stated .
Odinga’s response underscores his enduring dedication to African unity and development, even in the face of personal and political challenges.