Why Raila Odinga is a balancing act that has UDA on edge

Kenya’s political landscape has never been short of drama, but the latest developments surrounding Raila Odinga’s role in governance have left many scratching their heads. Is he the new Deputy President? The Leader of the Opposition? Or has he assumed a quasi-Prime Ministerial role?
Whatever the case, his growing influence within the Kenya Kwanza administration is reshaping the country’s power structure in ways that are unsettling even the ruling party’s inner circle.
As the 2027 elections approach, the political chessboard is being carefully arranged, with Odinga at the center of a strategy that could either solidify his influence from within or position him for another presidential bid. His cooperation with President William Ruto, once an archrival, has sparked debate about whether Kenya still has an opposition or if the country has silently transitioned into a hybrid government where key political players operate without defined roles.
On 7 March 2025, Ruto and Odinga signed a cooperation agreement, a move that many saw as an attempt to foster national unity and facilitate development. While the official narrative of the deal as an effort to stabilize governance, the political implications have been profound.
Critics argue that such an alliance effectively neutralizes opposition politics, eroding a key pillar of democracy. Political analyst Nanjala Nyabola summed up the concerns, remarking, “So basically, there’s no opposition party in Parliament anymore?” The sentiment is widely shared among those who believe that a functional democracy thrives on an active and independent opposition.
Since the agreement, Odinga’s Capitol Hill office has become a focal point for political activity. Delegations from business groups, civil society organizations, and even international diplomats continue to pay courtesy calls, treating him as a figure with executive authority. His attendance at high-profile state functions, including a banquet in honor of the Dutch royal family, where he was seated next to King Willem-Alexander, further reinforces his growing stature within the administration.
While Odinga’s star continues to rise, the fate of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki remains a subject of speculation. His absence from key government events has fueled rumors of his sidelining, raising questions about whether he still holds meaningful influence within Ruto’s administration.
On social media, concerns about Kindiki’s marginalization have sparked intense discussions. A post from BNN Basic captured the growing unease: “Netizens are concerned about Kithure Kindiki’s sidelining at state functions, leading to speculation…”
Further stoking the fire, viral images circulating online show Kindiki missing from major government events where one would expect the Deputy President to be present. The optics suggest a power shift—one that places Odinga at the center while Kindiki is left on the periphery.
This apparent reconfiguration of power dynamics has not sat well with UDA loyalists. The party, already grappling with internal divisions, is now facing fresh turbulence over Odinga’s unexpected proximity to the presidency. Some party members fear that their influence is being steadily eroded, with Odinga’s growing presence overshadowing them.
A senior UDA member, speaking anonymously, lamented: “We fought hard to establish our dominance, and now it feels like we’re handing over the reins to the opposition.”
 A leader without a clear title, but with tremendous influence
Perhaps the most perplexing aspect of Odinga’s current role is the ambiguity surrounding his official position. He holds no formal executive title—he is neither the Deputy President nor the Prime Minister—yet he commands a level of influence that rivals both roles.
The cooperation agreement between Ruto and Odinga did not explicitly define his duties, leaving room for speculation. However, his access to government machinery, ability to shape policy discussions, and growing involvement in state affairs suggest that he has been given a powerful, albeit unofficial, seat at the table.
Kalonzo Musyoka, leader of the Wiper Democratic Movement, was among the first to voice his discontent, branding the pact “the biggest betrayal of Kenyans.” His criticism reflects a broader concern that Kenya’s political realignment is shutting out traditional opposition figures while consolidating power within a select group.
Political commentator James Mwangi echoed these sentiments: “While unity is essential, democracy thrives on checks and balances. The current scenario raises concerns about accountability.”
Odinga is no stranger to power-sharing arrangements. Following the disputed 2007 elections, he served as Kenya’s Prime Minister in a coalition government with then-President Mwai Kibaki. That period saw him wield significant influence in governance, though his ultimate goal of becoming president remained elusive.
Fast forward to 2025, and a familiar pattern is emerging. His recent bid for the African Union Commission Chairperson position, though unsuccessful, reaffirmed his standing as a heavyweight in both Kenyan and continental politics. With that door closed, Odinga appears to have turned his attention back to domestic affairs, carving out a role that keeps him politically relevant while also positioning him strategically for the future.
ODM Leader addressing his supporters during the celebrations of party’s 20 year anniversary in Busia County
What next for Raila, Ruto and UDA?
As 2027 inches closer, the implications of the Ruto-Odinga alliance will become clearer. Will this partnership last, or is it merely a temporary arrangement driven by mutual convenience? Will UDA’s internal tensions escalate into a full-blown fallout? And most importantly, will Kenya’s democracy suffer from the absence of a strong and independent opposition?
For now, Odinga’s position remains one of the greatest political enigmas in recent Kenyan history. He may not carry an official title, but his influence is undeniable. His next moves will determine whether he cements himself as a behind-the-scenes kingmaker or prepares for one final shot at the presidency.
As citizenry watches this high-stakes political game unfold, one question lingers: Is Raila Odinga the shadow deputy president, the silent prime minister, or the opposition leader who simply chose to join the government instead of fighting it?