Ruto balancing act: Raila rising influence puts president 2027 bid on shaky ground

In a significant political development, President William Ruto’s administration is reportedly negotiating a power-sharing arrangement with Raila Odinga, leader of the Orange Democratic Movement.
The potential alliance could position Odinga as a co-president, fundamentally altering Kenya’s political landscape and influencing Ruto’s strategy for the 2027 General Elections.
Sources indicate that discussions are underway to restructure the executive branch to accommodate Odinga. Murang’a Senator Joe Nyutu suggests that Odinga could assume the role of an executive Prime Minister, a position that may grant him substantial authority, potentially surpassing that of the President.
“Raila Odinga is poised to wield more power than President William Ruto in a new political setup expected to be unveiled in the coming days,”Nyutu asserts.
The arrangement mirrors the 2008 coalition government formed between former President Mwai Kibaki and Odinga, following post-election violence. However, the current context differs, with Ruto seeking re-election and aiming to consolidate support across the political spectrum.
The potential alliance with Odinga presents both opportunities and challenges for President Ruto’s 2027 re-election campaign. Aligning with ODM could broaden his support base, particularly in regions where Odinga maintains significant influence. However, it also raises questions about power dynamics within the executive branch and the potential dilution of Ruto’s authority.
Political analyst Javas Bigambo observes, “While a power-sharing deal could stabilize the political environment and enhance governance, it may also lead to internal conflicts if roles and responsibilities are not clearly defined.”
Bigambo further notes that such an alliance requires careful negotiation to ensure mutual benefit and effective administration.
Similarly, Dr. Duncan Odhiambo, a political science lecturer at the University of Nairobi, comments, “President Ruto’s reliance on Odinga for political support indicates a strategic move to unify the country. However, it also places him in a precarious position, as he must balance the interests of his party with those of the ODM.”
The prospect of a power-sharing agreement has elicited mixed reactions within both ODM and the Kenya Kwanza coalition. Some ODM officials have expressed skepticism about collaborating with the current administration, citing ideological differences and past political rivalries. This internal dissent underscores the complexities Ruto faces in securing unwavering support from ODM members.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, also the ODM Secretary-General, has been vocal in his criticism of President Ruto. Sifuna asserts that even with ODM’s backing, Ruto’s chances of re-election remain uncertain.
“President Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027 will flop even with Raila Odinga’s support.”
Within Kenya Kwanza, some members view the potential alliance with caution. They express concerns about the possible erosion of their influence and the implications of sharing power with a long-time political adversary.
Maragua MP Mary wa Maua reflects on the challenges of such an alliance, noting that unlike former President Uhuru Kenyatta, who had the latitude to cede to Odinga’s demands, Ruto’s position is more constrained. She remarks, “Dr. Ruto can only promise Mr. Odinga power sharing but most likely will not agree to back down from re-election to support Mr. Odinga like Mr. Kenyatta did.”
Raila Odinga’s political journey has been marked by resilience and adaptability. His previous role as Prime Minister in the grand coalition government with President Kibaki demonstrated his capacity to navigate complex political terrains.
The current negotiations with President Ruto could signify a strategic move to remain influential in Kenya’s governance, especially after his unsuccessful bid for the African Union Commission leadership, where Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Youssouf was elected.
As the country approaches the 2027 elections, the potential Ruto-Odinga alliance could reshape political alliances and voter dynamics. If formalized, this partnership may lead to constitutional amendments to redefine executive roles, necessitating public discourse and legislative approval.