What next for Kenya Kwanza as ODM reclaims majority status?

United Democratic party has been thrown into turmoil following the latest High Court ruling declaring the Orange Democratic Movement, majority party in the National Assembly.
The ruling, which effectively strips the Kenya Kwanza coalition of its majority status, has sparked heated debate and uncertainty among lawmakers.
The decision is a major political win for ODM leader Raila Odinga while posing a significant challenge for President William Ruto’s allies, particularly National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah.
As the ruling reverberates across the political divide, questions abound on what this means for legislative processes, coalition agreements, and the overall governance of the country. Will this ruling weaken the Kenya Kwanza administration’s grip on Parliament? Does this signal a renewed political resurgence for the opposition?
The High Court ruling stems from a petition filed by ODM, challenging the Speaker of the National Assembly’s 2022 decision to recognize the Kenya Kwanza coalition as the majority.
At the time, Speaker Moses Wetang’ula ruled that Kenya Kwanza, a coalition led by President William Ruto, had the numbers to claim the majority position. This decision was based on post-election agreements where several smaller parties, including those previously aligned with Azimio la Umoja–One Kenya Coalition, joined Kenya Kwanza.
However, in its latest verdict, the court ruled that the Speaker erred in his interpretation of the law. The judgment reaffirmed that ODM remains the party with the largest representation in Parliament under the Azimio la Umoja coalition, thereby making it the rightful majority party. The ruling is seen as a significant legal and political shift that could alter the balance of power in Parliament.
This ruling has now reignited fresh political battles, with Kenya Kwanza allies pushing back against the court’s decision.
Kimani Ichung’wah, the National Assembly Majority Leader and a staunch Ruto ally, finds himself in an awkward position following the ruling. Having enjoyed the influence and authority that comes with leading the majority side in Parliament, Ichung’wah now faces the possibility of losing his seat. The ruling directly threatens his leadership position, as it implies that ODM’s nominee could replace him.
In response, Ichung’wah and other Kenya Kwanza lawmakers have dismissed the court’s decision as politically motivated. He has vowed to challenge the ruling, arguing that the Speaker’s decision was based on the reality of coalition agreements at the time. His sentiments have been echoed by other Ruto allies, who claim that the ruling is an attempt to destabilize the government.
Despite the defiance from Kenya Kwanza, the reality is that the ruling has thrown the coalition into disarray. Should the courts and Parliament move forward with implementing the decision, Ichung’wah’s tenure as Majority Leader may come to an end. This would deal a significant political blow to President Ruto’s parliamentary agenda, as ODM and Azimio could use their newfound influence to frustrate government bills and policies.
One of the immediate concerns following this ruling is how it affects Kenya Kwanza’s ability to push its legislative agenda. With ODM now set to assume the majority role, the government’s ability to pass crucial bills could face stiff resistance.
Kenya Kwanza has relied on its perceived parliamentary dominance to introduce and pass key policies, including tax reforms and budget allocations. However, with ODM taking charge, the following consequences may arise:
Leadership Changes in Parliament – If the ruling is enforced, key positions such as Majority Leader, Majority Whip, and committee chairpersons currently held by Kenya Kwanza MPs could be up for grabs. This would be a major disruption to Kenya Kwanza’s parliamentary influence.
Obstruction of Government Bills– With ODM in control, government-sponsored bills may face increased scrutiny and opposition, potentially slowing down President Ruto’s economic and governance agenda.